General News
Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows in Brazil's presidential runoff poll
What happened
A recent CNT/MDA poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential runoff has narrowed significantly. The survey, conducted ahead of the October vote, reflects shifting voter preferences in the tight race.
Key facts
-1 The CNT/MDA poll shows Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro by 48% to 45% in the runoff, down from a 52% to 43% lead in the previous survey.
-2 The poll was conducted between August 5 and August 9, 2026, with a sample size of 2,000 voters.
-3 Lula's support has declined by 4 percentage points since the prior poll, while Flavio Bolsonaro's has risen by 2 points.
-4 The margin of error for the poll is 2.2 percentage points.
-5 The survey reflects a trend of growing polarization in Brazil's electorate ahead of the runoff.
Context
-1.5 Brazil's presidential elections are held in two rounds if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. -2 The runoff is scheduled for October 2026, with the first round held on October 4, 2026. -3 Lula, a left-wing leader, served as president from 2003 to 2010 and returned to office in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro. -4 Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is a right-wing senator and key opposition figure.